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  • Guy Drori

Moderna Inc. (MRNA)

A frequent name during the pandemic was Moderna Inc. (Nasdaq:MRNA) particular Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, which utilize a new technology called mRNA (same as the symbol).

After few quarters of record-high result and cash-flow form sales of the vaccine, the trend has shift to lower sales and lower profitability as demand for COVID-19 vaccine declines.

What's next for the company? This is a big question....

Moderna mission (as publish on their website): "To deliver on the promise of mRNA science to create a new generation of transformative medicines for patients."

"Messenger RNA (mRNA) is not new technology, but we are discovering new ways to use it to treat and prevent illnesses and diseases. Since our founding in 2010, we have worked to build the industry's leading mRNA technology platform. "

This days Moderna continue to utilize mRNA technology to treating additional disuses like flu, RSV, CMV etc. Those treatment are in different clinical phases (see below Moderna pipeline chart) and will strangest the company offering and products arsenal.

Stéphane Bancel, Moderna CEO open his one of his letter to Shareholders, with below massage:

"Today, we are guided by our unwavering belief that Moderna's mRNA platform can solve the world’s greatest health challenges—from diseases impacting millions to medicines personalized down to the individual level. We are dedicated to pursuing innovative vaccine solutions to address infectious diseases that pose the greatest risk to public health through collaborative research and development. We have focused on developing a global health vaccine program since the beginning and with our recently announced Global Public Health Strategy, we are expanding our work to develop vaccines against priority pathogens that threaten global health.

We believe Moderna could become one of the most impactful healthcare companies in the world. A strand of mRNA can bind science, technology and humanity together to build a healthier planet. I invite you to read this report and learn about our progress across our Environmental, Social, and Governance commitments. There is much work to do, and we are grateful for your engagement in this journey to help us become the most impactful version of Moderna over the next several decades."

Moderna financial results as presented below, emphasizes the high-peak from COVID-19 sales in Q4 2021 and afterword the decline trend.

For the full year of 2021 Moderna reported net income of above $12B on revenues of $18.5B (66% net income profitability!).

Based on guidance provided by the company, FY2022 revenues are expected to close at the range of $18B-$19B as Q4 22 should be with higher sales compare to Q3.

Moderna has no debt and piles of cash, in the sum of ~$17B as of Sep 30, 2022.

A great and positive scenario for Moderna could be if COVID-19 vaccine sales will continue, probably with lower run rate compare to 2021and 2022, but will remain solid business as there will be additional needs for an improve/variant vaccine. Plus, two to three new blockbuster vaccine/treatment (i.e. flu, RSV etc.). This scenario can keep current levels of revenues and even higher.

With a market cap of ~$60B (below current level of ~$70B, after rally in the stock in Oct), Moderna might be a good bet on mRNA technology and prevent illnesses and diseases in the future.

Disclosure: The article should not be considered a recommendation or a substitute for the reader's independent judgment, or an offer or investment marketing or investment advice.


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